Today's Northern California Real Estate Market, in Plain Numbers
Mortgage rates, county median home values, one-year and five-year price change, and buyer assistance programs for Lake, Marin, Sonoma, Napa, Mendocino, Sacramento, and San Francisco counties. Treasury yields refresh daily and Freddie Mac mortgage rates weekly; county home values come from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey and price change from the FHFA House Price Index, each updated when the agency publishes a new year.
County data Census 2024, FHFA 2025 · Page loaded loading… Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac PMMS and U.S. Treasury yields via FRED (St. Louis Fed), intraday 10-year yield from the CBOE 10-year yield index via Yahoo Finance. County median home value from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2024 1-year estimates; 1-year and 5-year price change from the FHFA House Price Index, annual county index through 2025.
30-Year Fixed
Freddie Mac PMMS
15-Year Fixed
Freddie Mac PMMS
10-Year Treasury
Leading indicator for mortgage rates
Rate Direction
vs. prior week
Matthew Smith Luxe Places International Realty · California DRE# 02184215
Northern California focus Lake, Marin, Sonoma, Napa, Mendocino, Sacramento, San Francisco
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey posts every Thursday. The 10-year Treasury updates every trading day.
Checking latest data…
This week's national averages
30-Year JumboAbove the conforming limit, Optimal Blue
30-Year FixedConforming loan, Freddie Mac
15-Year FixedConforming loan, Freddie Mac
10-Year TreasuryBenchmark yield
30-year and 15-year fixed: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, published weekly. 10-year Treasury: market yield during trading hours, otherwise the latest U.S. Treasury close. Freddie Mac PMMS and U.S. Treasury.
Jumbo applies above the 2026 conforming limit: $1,249,125 in Marin and San Francisco, $1,017,750 in Napa, $897,000 in Sonoma, $832,750 in Lake, Mendocino & Sacramento (FHFA 2026 county limits). Jumbo rate via Optimal Blue. View source.
The 10-year Treasury yield
10-Year Treasury Yield
updating…
How to read it: 30-year mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury but do not match it, and the gap between the two widens and narrows over time. Both series are public, so you can watch the spread yourself.
Source: daily closes from the U.S. Treasury par yield curve via FRED (St. Louis Fed); intraday values from the CBOE 10-year yield index via Yahoo Finance. Rates shown are national averages. Your actual rate depends on credit, down payment, property type, and loan specifics.
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County price, pace, and trend
The numbers below show how each county is behaving right now: the median sale price and how it has moved over the past year, the long-run 5-year appreciation, the year-over-year sales trend, and how fast homes are selling.
The midpoint of what owners in the Census Bureau's American Community Survey reported their homes are worth: half of owner-occupied homes are valued above it, half below. It is an owner estimate for all owner-occupied homes, not a sale price.
5-year appreciation
How much county values have climbed over five years, from the FHFA House Price Index, a repeat-sales measure that controls for the mix of homes sold. Example: Sacramento is up +36.9% over five years versus San Francisco at +13.7%, so the same dollars have grown very differently by county.
1-year price change
The change in the FHFA House Price Index from 2024 to 2025, a repeat-sales measure that controls for the mix of homes sold. Example: Lake County down 1.2% while Sacramento County is up 0.6% (FHFA, 2024 to 2025).
What a California home actually costs each month
In California, Proposition 13 limits the base property tax rate to 1% of assessed value, and local voter-approved bonds and special assessments are added on top. Any HOA dues come out of the same check. This calculator uses the county-wide average tax rate published by the California Board of Equalization for Lake, Marin, Sonoma, Napa, Mendocino, Sacramento, and San Francisco. It does not include mortgage insurance.
Each rate above is the county-wide average total tax rate published by the California Board of Equalization for fiscal year 2024-25. BOE 2024-25 Annual Report, page 13. Treat it as an illustration, not a quote. California's base rate is 1 percent under Proposition 13, and voter-approved bonds and local assessments stack on top and vary parcel by parcel, so the rate for a specific property is on the county assessor's record.
Your estimated monthly payment
$0
Principal + interest + taxes + insurance + HOA
Principal & interest$0
Property tax$0
Homeowners insurance$0
HOA dues$0
Loan amount$0
Total interest over term$0
Estimate only, and it does not include mortgage insurance, so an FHA, USDA, or low-down conventional payment will run higher than what you see here. The rate box starts at the 30-year average shown at the top of this page and you can type your own quoted rate over it. Actual property tax assessment is based on purchase price plus local voter-approved bonds and special districts. Your lender will verify exact taxes during escrow.
California programs worth knowing about
Eligibility depends on income, purchase price, and property location. We can walk you through which ones fit before you write an offer.
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First-time buyer
CalHFA MyHome Assistance
Deferred second loan for down payment or closing costs, up to the lesser of purchase price or appraised value: 3.5% with a CalHFA FHA first mortgage, 3% with a CalHFA conventional, USDA, or VA first mortgage. It must be combined with a CalHFA first mortgage. Payments are deferred until you sell, refinance, or pay off the first loan.
Income limits vary by county. Must be first-time buyer.
Shared appreciation
CalHFA Dream for All
Up to 20% of purchase price (capped at $150,000) toward down payment, structured as a shared-appreciation loan for first-generation buyers. You repay principal plus a share of the home's appreciation when you sell or refinance. Awarded by random selection, released in waves.
The 2026 application window closed March 16, 2026. CalHFA released the next round of DFA vouchers on May 20, 2026. If you applied, log in to the DFA Portal to check your status. CalHFA has not announced another application window.
Rural eligible
USDA Rural Development Loan
Zero down payment for homes in USDA-designated rural areas, which cover large portions of Lake County, Mendocino County, and rural stretches of Sonoma and Napa. Income caps apply.
Checked against USDA's own eligibility map on August 26, 2026: no ineligible area was returned for Lake or Mendocino County, though USDA makes the final determination parcel by parcel. Fees are a 1% upfront guarantee and a 0.35% annual fee. Check any address on the USDA map, or we will pull it for you.
Veterans
VA Home Loan
Zero down and no monthly mortgage insurance for eligible active duty service members, veterans, and qualifying surviving spouses. A buyer with full entitlement has no VA loan limit, so no purchase price cap, as long as the lender approves the loan amount and the appraisal supports the price. County limits still apply to a buyer who has used part of their entitlement and not had it restored. VA sets no minimum credit score and does not set your rate; your lender does both.
Certificate of Eligibility required. In place of mortgage insurance most buyers pay a one-time VA funding fee, 2.15% of the loan on a first-use purchase under 5% down and 3.3% after first use, lower with more down. Buyers receiving VA compensation for a service-connected disability are among those exempt. We can connect you with VA-experienced lenders.
FHA
FHA 3.5% Down
Federally insured loan requiring only 3.5% down with credit scores as low as 580. Carries mortgage insurance for the life of the loan in most cases.
2026 FHA limits vary by county. Marin, Sonoma, and Napa have higher limits than Lake and Mendocino.
County-specific
Lake County First Time Buyer
Lake County has run a first-time buyer program for the unincorporated areas of the county: deferred payment silent second loans toward down payment and closing costs for income-qualified buyers. It is funded with federal HOME and CDBG money and administered by the County of Lake Administrative Office, not by Community Development.
Status unconfirmed. In its December 2025 request for proposals the county said it had not recently issued new loans, and no open application is posted. Call the County of Lake Administrative Office at (707) 263-2580 before you count on it, or call us and we will check for you.
Teachers and school staff
School staff: the separate CalHFA program is gone
CalHFA discontinued the School Teacher and Employee Assistance Program effective March 2, 2020. If you were told to ask for it, that is why you cannot find it. School employees now use MyHome on the same terms as every other borrower.
Source: CalHFA Program Bulletin 2020-01, February 3, 2020. Ask us which of the current CalHFA programs you qualify for.
Conventional low-down
Fannie Mae HomeReady & Freddie Mac Home Possible
Conventional loans with 3% down and reduced mortgage insurance for low-to-moderate income buyers.
Income limits are 80% of area median income for both. A non-occupant co-borrower generally means at least 5% down rather than 3%: Home Possible caps those loans at 95% loan to value, and HomeReady requires every borrower to occupy the home above 95% unless there is a Community Seconds lien.
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County data updated monthly
Market data sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey and U.S. Treasury yields (via FRED, St. Louis Fed) for mortgage rates; the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2024 1-year estimates for county median home value (value reported by owners, not a sale price); and the FHFA House Price Index, annual county index through 2025, for 1-year and 5-year price change. County figures reflect the most recent published year. Information believed accurate but not guaranteed. Rates and programs change without notice.
Matthew Smith, CA DRE 02184215 · Luxe Places International Realty, CA DRE 01522223 · Equal Housing Opportunity. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Market figures are compiled from published public sources and are estimates. They are not an appraisal or a guarantee of value.
Matthew Smith, California DRE #02184215. Luxe Places International Realty, DRE #01522223. 707-893-7374. Equal Housing Opportunity. We do business in accordance with the Federal Fair Housing Act and California fair housing laws, and do not discriminate on the basis of race, color, ancestry, national origin, citizenship, immigration status, primary language, religion, disability, sex and gender, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, genetic information, marital status, familial status, source of income, military or veteran status, age, or any other class protected by law.
Matthew Smith, California DRE #02184215. Luxe Places International Realty, DRE #01522223. 707-893-7374. Equal Housing Opportunity. We do business in accordance with the Federal Fair Housing Act and California fair housing laws, and do not discriminate on the basis of race, color, ancestry, national origin, citizenship, immigration status, primary language, religion, disability, sex and gender, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, genetic information, marital status, familial status, source of income, military or veteran status, age, or any other basis protected by federal, state, or local law, including perceived membership in, or association with a member of, any of these classes.